NCR just like the other regions in the Philippines is composed of different cities and municipalities, and is also called Metro Manila. On the other hand, Caloocan, Las Pinas and Valenzuela all reported less than 4 new daily cases of Covid-19 per million of population during the week from May 10 to 16. It is also possible that the trends in NCR changed for the worse during the period. In this paper, we examine Covid-19 cases in key provinces and LGUs in the Philippines, based on data from the Department of Health. Figure 6 shows the average reproduction number R for the week from May 10 to May 16.
For convenience in the presentation of results, the LGUs were grouped into three: the LGUs with the most number of Covid-19 cases in NCR (Group A), to the LGUs with the least number of Covid-19 cases (Group C), and those in between (group B).
The actual numbers exceeded our forecasts. A province or LGU is considered to be “high risk” if R > 1 and the number of new Covid-19 cases per day is greater than 1 per million of population. Lapu Lapu City had 8 new cases of Covid-19, Mandaue City had 17, Oriental Mindoro had 7 and Samar had 10, hence their inclusion in the medium risk group. “This week” is the number of Covid-19 cases for the week from May 10 to 16; “Previous week” consists of new Covid-19 cases for the week from May 3 to 9; “2 weeks ago” gives the number of new Covid-19 cases for the week from April 26 to May 2. For NCR and Cebu City, the number of new Covid-19 cases is still very high, and the value of R > 1, so the risk level of the pandemic is still high. The ECQ has been working. “The projections for Panay for May 15, using current trends in transmission rates, are a total of 65 cases of Covid-19 and 6 deaths due to Covid-19.”. Mobility and proximity to other people are drivers of the Covid-19 pandemic. If we are not careful, the city may follow the state of pandemic in Cebu City. Table 2 presents the forecasts for June 15 for these provinces and LGUs. The actual numbers are 410 confirmed cases (not including 7 pending cases) and 27 deaths. Since then, we have published a total of 7 reports. But we need to. We reiterate further our previous recommendation for government to expand further the testing capacity as we move towards opening certain sectors of the economy. A value R > 1 indicates that the pandemic is spreading and the number of new Covid-19 cases is increasing, while R < 1 indicates this number is decreasing. Albay Antique Bataan, Benguet Bulacan Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur Cavite Ifugao, Iloilo Lanao Del Norte Misamis Oriental, Nueva Ecija Occidental Mindoro Pampanga, Quezon Rizal Romblon, Cebu province (not including Cebu City, Mandaue City, Lapu Lapu City), Lapu Lapu City Laguna Mandaue City, Batangas Cebu City Davao City, NCR Zamboanga City. The National Capital Region, or called as Metro Manila, is the most populous of the twelve defined metropolitan areas in the Philippines and the 11th most populous in the world. Table 1 presents the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths in each LGU using current data (May 16), and our forecasts for June 15, 2020. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. Batangas and Davao City both had a low number of cases for their population (but greater than 1). Currently, the numbers for Cebu are 1,743 confirmed cases and 25 deaths.
[2] Calabarzon was split off from the former Southern Tagalog region in 2002. The slogan is an acronym that stands for the names of the 13 senator candidates fielded by PPC. Considering that NCR is one of the most densely populated areas in the world, and in fact Manila, Pateros and Mandaluyong are top three among all cities and municipalities in the world (see Wikipedia), reducing mobility and proximity in NCR is a challenge. We reiterate that contact tracing (CT) is an important component in the fight against Covid-19. Even in areas under GCQ or those not under community quarantine, vigilance is still needed in order to ensure that that any new cases are immediately detected and new outbreaks prevented. A province or LGU is considered “low risk” if the number of new Covid-19 cases per day is less than 1 per million of population.
Several provinces have now transitioned to General Community Quarantine (GCQ), while those regions with the highest risk of spreading the pandemic have been moved to a Modified ECQ (MECQ). Find out what is the full meaning of NCR on Abbreviations.com! For each LGU, the current levels in transmissions were used to make projections for the next 30 days. Our goal ultimately is not just to flatten the curve but to bend it downwards. In the case of Zamboanga City, a transmission rate that was decreasing each day was assumed. The government should also closely monitor Samar and Oriental Mindoro, as a number of new Covid-19 cases appeared in those provinces recently. Laguna and Mandaue also have R < 1. For Central Luzon, this was our statement: “The forecast for the region assuming latest trends continue is 400 total Covid-19 cases and 28 deaths by May 15, 2020.”. The pandemic is ongoing and continues to be a clear and present danger to us all. We wrote: “Assuming a continuation of the current trends, our projections show 6,000 total cases of Covid-19 by May 15, with 430 deaths.”. This is the most practical approach to assessing which economic sectors to reopen first with manageable risk outcomes. As shown in the figures, the highest number of new Covid-19 cases per million in NCR are in Pasay, Paranaque, Pateros, Quezon City and Mandaluyong – all these LGUs reported at least 10 new Covid-19 daily cases per million of population during the past week. Luzviminda is actually used as a name for many Filipino women. Batangas and Laguna saw slight increases in new Covid-19 cases. They are widely used in different sectors of Philippine society. Davao City performed better than our forecasts. In many LGUs in NCR, the number of cases per week is still increasing. These and other strategic concerns need focused study given the duration before a vaccine, if any, could be deployed. A premiere example in the Philippines is Luzviminda. Popular noontime variety shows like SOP and ASAP have appropriated common acronyms as the name of the TV show. In addition, we include in the list Batangas, Davao City and Zamboanga City, for the reason that these provinces and LGUs still have a significant number of new Covid-19 cases and are worth including in the study. Figure 4 shows the number of new Covid-19 cases over the past 3 weeks: May 10 to 16 (This week), May 3 to 9 (Previous week) and April 26 to May 2 (2 weeks ago) for Batangas, Cebu City, Davao City, Laguna, Mandaue City and Zamboanga City. The decrease in the reproduction number may be solely attributed to the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ), despite some challenges the nation faced with regard to mass testing and contact tracing. Calabarzon performed slightly better than our projections. In many LGUs in NCR, the number of cases per week is still increasing. We now look at data of Covid-19 cases in Laguna, Cebu City and Mandaue City – the areas that are still under ECQ. All other provinces not indicated have no new Covid-19 cases for the week May 10 to 16, and are in the Safe category. Looking back at the case of Cebu City, which had only 24 Covid-19 cases on April 11 (with R = 0.88 at that time), new Covid-19 cases started to appear, and one month later, the number of cases in Cebu City had exceeded 1,400. A particularly stilted political acronym used was the slogan used by the People Power Coalition (PPC) in the 2001 senatorial elections: VOT FOR D CHAMMP. This is an acronym that stands for Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao, the three island groupings of the country. Due to expected time delays in reporting current data (see our Report No. “Our forecasts, assuming a continued decrease in transmission due to the continued implementation of ECQ, project a total of 190 total cases of Covid-19 and 30 deaths by May 15.