So in a sense, our starting point for the work that we do on the World Energy Outlook is the need for this hard, evidence-based look at where we are and the choices that we face. So what you see here is our plot of each hour of the year, and how much the rest of the system needed to react hour by hour over the course of 2018. In the case of India, we really think that batteries are going to play an important parts of that story, especially if those cost decline that you've seen over the last years can be maintained. on production, consumption and trade of oil, gas, coal, power and renewables; covering 60 countries and regions throughout the world. In the Stated Policies Scenario, global nuclear electricity generation increases to 3073 TWh in 2030 and to 3475 TWh in 2040, up from 2718 TWh last year. The highest annual reductions in primary energy consumption were posted in Belgium, Austria and Greece, whereas the largest increases were observed in Estonia, Latvia and Luxembourg. We look at the electricity mix later in this article. Gas continues to grow, but it's role in power systems changes very much becoming a source of flexibility rather than a source of base load or mid-merit power. I mean, you can look at the debate in France that talk about net-zero are now an increasing number of jurisdictions, 65 jurisdictions by our count after the UN Climate Summit in September had announced we're actively considering net-zero targets by mid-century. © 2020 Coursera Inc. All rights reserved.
The share of renewables in global heat increases by 60% and reaches nearly 940 Mtoe in 2040, thanks to substantial growth in the modern use of bioenergy (pellets in boilers and stoves, biogas and biomethane, biofuels), renewable electricity and also of solar thermal.
The first that I'd like to come to is about what happens to power systems when you install a lot more variable generation? The first one is in oil markets, where over the last 18-24 months, you've had a number of things happening in the world, that ordinarily would be very disruptive for markets. So we're going to get back above those pre-Fukushima levels of generation. That endpoint is all sorts of normative goals. It will also discuss renewable energy sources, nuclear energy and EU energy policy. So if you're going to tackle, if you're going to bring the world onto a trajectory consistent with Paris, it's not just what you add, it's what you do with the stuff that you already have. The world of energy is being reshaped by a set of fundamental drivers, which we term the “Grand Transition”.
So that could be in the nationally determined contributions, it could be efficiency targets, it could be renewables targets. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Solar PV provides the largest share of renewable capacity additions in most regions, including China and India.
Those supply side technologies eventually, after some tax credits, some partnerships with industry, innovation and large-scale investment, that's what produced the Shale revolution. Thank you for subscribing. That's true to a degree, but is not as strong a story as you'd imagine.
I very much appreciate the warm welcome from [inaudible] , likewise from Professor [inaudible] and only to echo the words that we have benefited greatly from the support that we've had from some really excellent students who've come through the IAEA. So Iran exports have gone from 2.8 million barrels a day down to 300,000 barrels a day today because of sanctions. Week #1 : Introduction to global energy trends and scenarios, This module presents the Introduction to global energy consumption, Energy scenarios, Energy transition and poverty, Professor and Scientific Advisor for the Master in International Energy, To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that, Interview with Professor Manfred Hafner part 1, Interview with Professor Manfred Hafner part 2. According to the IEA, some USD1.6 trillion in power investments would be needed up to 2040 in order to offset less nuclear capacity with more renewables. This information, apart from the cookies, is used to create generic statistics on the use of our site. I'd like to take you back to when was it? I suspect many people in this room would have been watching the World Cup final. The report - World Energy Outlook 2019 - features three scenarios for the world's energy mix up to 2040. Share of BRICS in the total increase in energy consumption since 2000.
Cookie Preferences Fast-forward to 1950, oil has really taken this upward journey, 60 percent of that is produced in North America, but the second largest producer after the United States in 1950 was Venezuela producing considerably more than it does today.
But I think you're all aware that flattening emissions is not the task that we have been set. 10/10. European gas demand in that scenario because of efficiency measures, because of changes in the power sector, it goes down by around a 100 billion cubic meters. Together we can continue to accelerate a successful global energy transition.
Because fuel efficiency, but also because we're thinking of different ways to meet that need for mobility. IP Address (an IP address is a number that is automatically assigned to your computer whenever you are surfing the web).
So efficiency, not just in general, but efficiency across a specified wide range of industrial applications, appliances, and so on. So today, there's about a 170 gigawatts of coal-fired power under construction, and a fleet of over 2,000. We've solved the issue of the power sector because of increasingly cost-competitive renewables. This is due to a decline in GHG emissions from the residential and tertiary sector (-2.7%, i.e. Shell is really having a profound impact on the oil and gas landscape.
It was in the evening, so the sun had gone down. So the optimal way to bring that in, everything else has to dial back. Because there you have a very big expansion of solar, and you have this mismatch between a lunchtime peak in solar and an evening peak in electricity demand, which is also spurred by the increased availability of the incomes and then by air conditioners and all sorts of other appliances they get switched on in the evening. Please login to interact with the World Energy Transition Radar. Access to the most comprehensive and up-to-date database on energy supply, demand, prices and GHG emissions (186 countries). What has changed most, however, is the speed and volatility of changes and unevenness of impacts. So I think we're all familiar with the idea that you need these balancing services in power markets. There's a few problems that we've solved.
You can see that pipeline gas to China increases quite a lot largely from Russia, but there's an extra line coming in from Turkmenistan, but most of that is LNG, and that's coming from the US, from Canada, from East Africa, from Qatar, from Russia, and from a few other places. I'm going to talk about some of that today. The future though doesn't look like the past. These drivers provide the broader context for determining global energy pathways to 2040. Since the World Energy Council last published its World Energy Scenarios in 2016, we have experienced three years of comparatively high, carbon-centric energy demand and a marked acceleration in renewable energy developments. It does not include energy from food, and the extent to which direct biomass burning …
So about 600 million extra people living in African cities by 2040 compared with today. In the Stated Policies Scenario, the amount of renewables (excluding traditional use of biomass) in final energy consumption increases from more than 990 Mtoe today to almost 2 260 Mtoe in 2040. Last July.
The other thing we've solved is personal mobility because obviously EV is on the rise and those two issues are done. It's now called the stated policy scenario, which looks at what if you incorporate also the things that governments say they would like to achieve. These statistics do not include information about individuals and the log files are not shared with anyone beyond the WEC web support staff.
You can also repurpose some of the coal-fired plants for flexible operations. Thank you so much for professor , it was very interting course and now, i know a lot of infromation about energy. So in the European Union, you would need additional sources of flexibility. What are the implications then for your operations, for your business models? (yroylqj wudqvlwlrq (7 0ruh hqhuj\ 0(/hvv joredol]dwlrq /* 5dslg wudqvlwlrq 57 5hqhz +\gur 1xfohdu For the period 2010-13 he was appointed Princeton University Global Scholar, attached to the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Near Eastern Studies. That was a larger increase than the increase on the electricity side. These drivers provide the broader context for determining global energy pathways to 2040. It's full access to modern energy, both for electricity and for clean cooking by 2030, and it's also a dramatic reduction in the pollutants that cause poor air quality and a host of health risks around the world.
So that's 10 gigatons out of 33 gigatons for the energy sector.
Meanwhile, Japan (3% of global emissions) reduced its energy-related CO2 emissions by 2.1%, the United States (13% of total emissions) by 2.6% and Russia (5% of total emissions) by 0.8%.
Wind and solar PV provide more than half of the additional electricity generation to 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario and almost all the growth in the Sustainable Development Scenario.