He graduated high school and went on to study Physics in College. He used math and provide analytics to make money at the casinos. It’s true. Conditional Logistic Regression with Frailty applied to predicting horse race winners in Hong Kong.http://www.helios.aiSince first proposed by Bill Benter in 1994, the Conditional Logistic Regression has been an extremely popular tool for estimating the probability of horses winning a race. While estimates of his fortune are largely speculation, there’s certainly no doubt that he has been one of the founding fathers of computer-based statistical modelling in the gambling world. Armed with a strong quantitative background and endless dedication, he was determined to develop a successful betting algorithm and beat the Hong Kong racetracks. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. You can make all kinds of formulas like this, and you can even combine them to make an even better handicapping picture. In blackjack, you can gain an edge over the house by tracking the ratio of high and low cards. One of the main models he used to weigh the factors was known as multinomial logit regression. Hong Kong Horse Racing Legend . Other formulas have been based on the same principle. Benter grew up in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and always had a mathematical mind. Then after, the winning probabilities are estimated and the appropriate amount to bet is calculated.
In blackjack, you can gain an edge over the house by tracking the ratio of high and low cards. If it were all up to the horses perhaps it would be somewhat easier to determine which one is best, but it is not. We will tell you up front that there is no such magic formula in horse racing. If they could do that then horse racing would no longer be a gamble. What is known for sure though, is that he was truly a pioneer in the use of computer-based modelling and has gone on to be one of the world’s all-time great professional gamblers. The way the process worked was to test factors to determine their significance as to whether they were able to impact the outcome of a race – more specifically if it leads to the horse winning. 這跟讀一個part time大學學位的感覺差不多, 好了，靠嚇後可以看一下Benter的成績，5季中有4季盈利，以下圖表顯示，約1600場後y axis 是3倍，即是20倍原始本金 ！！, 另外，還有中大顧教授啊，你看Benter於數學年會上的presentation都有提到。, William Benter, Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping Systems. Given Benter’s mathematical ability the two joined forces in 1984 and set about turning their success at the tables of Las Vegas, into finding a consistent edge at the racing tracks of Hong Kong.
As Benter grew up, he desired to use his mathematical talentsto make a living but he didn’t want to have to devote his lifeto teaching or any other regular 9 to 5 job, so … Finally, I implemented a Cyclical Coordinate Descent algorithm to fit the model in high-speed parallelized code that runs on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), allowing me to rapidly test many tuning parameter settings. A portrait of William “Bill” Benter professional gambler, physician, lecturer, and philanthropist. Bill Benter wanted to use his mathematical prowess to profit and chose Las Vegas as the best place to test out his skills. A third positive attribute of a computerized handicapping system is its consistency. The multinomial logit regression model then calculates the weighting of the factors. We’re just saying that you should not allow yourself to become religiously devoted to one single approach. He also uses the same mathematical techniques to bet on the exotics. Let’s face it. 184 W. BENTER money. William Benter was born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania andthat’s where he spent the majority of his childhood. The most Wicult and time-consuming step in creating a computer based betting system is the development of the fundamental handicapping model. When there are a high ratio of high-value cards, 10s and Aces, then you can gain an edge if you play the optimal strategy (known as basic strategy). In fact, that is what angles in horse racing are all about. Bill Benter又名William Benter或William Bill Benter，他最有名的(不計現在報紙說佢賺了多少錢)是於1995年發表了一份論文，名為 “Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”，此文中用到幾個概念到今天仍然是很重要的起點，以下就介紹一下。 … An effective horse betting formula is one that will probably be managed by a computer. Did you know that some of the best professional gamblers were formerly college-educated mathematicians and scientists? There has also been speculation that during his time in Las Vegas, Benter developed a system that was able to win at roulette. Check the book horse racing for dummies too! Perform this formula for all the horses in the race and each horse will have a number that you can compare. Champion Bets has been Australia’s favourite source of betting tips for almost 14 years.
Born in Pittsburgh, PA in 1957, Bill Benter is a self-proclaimed mathematical genius. I propose a new prediction process that is composed of two innovations to the common CLR model and a unique goal for parameter tuning . Historical data from 3681 races in Hong Kong were collected and a 10-fold cross validation was used to find the optimal outcome. They quickly discovered that if they bet on the overlays they had a decent edge. If you are buying a betting formula from someone then you should have an opportunity to see how well the formula works. All Rights Reserved. However, Benter was determined to take the early model and build it into something more powerful. Soon he was known in many casinos and escorted out as soon as he tried to enter. How To Turn $5 Into $100 At The Race Track, All Eyes On Belmont : Horse Racing Problems In California, 2020 Kentucky Derby Becomes A Victim Of Covid-19. Then, the horse bettor only has to look at the numbers he has arrived at to make a betting decision: In the above example the choice for the bettor would be pretty cut and dried.
Develop Your Own Simple Horse Betting Formula. We’re not knocking the Sartin formula. Betting Gods might be something worth checking out, © 2013 - 2020 EzHorseBetting.com. 1. American gambler William Benter developed arguably the most successful computer software in the world to attack the giant Hong Kong horse racing market, where the pools routinely reach into the hundreds of millions of dollars. The best horse betting formula is going to have a few distinctions over others. There is nothing that says you can come up with a way to pick winners based on certain factors. In the early days, Bill Benter started out with only 16 factors that he was using to determine the outcome of a race. We understand that this is a very basic example and that the best horse betting formula would not be this simple. He studied Physics at University, but instead of taking a more traditional career path, his destiny changed when he came across a copy of the famous gambling bible, “Beat the Dealer”, by Edward Thorp. Having some type of software which will make the calculations for you is a great advantage. There is probably never going to be a way for horse betters to definitively develop a accurate horse betting formula. Horse racing has a human element that cannot be expressed by a formula. Our simple formula is made to identify horses that are in good condition and healthy enough to win. An example: A horse’s speed (a) + race track condition (b) = the horse’s chance to win (c). Well Bill Benter is a man who cracked the horse racing code back in the 1980's and made hundreds of millions of dollars. Even ingrade school, it became evident that Benter had exceptionalmathematic skills as he would often work out different equationsin his head just for fun.